Pakistan must avoid defeat to secure qualification, as another first-round exit looms at the men’s ICC event

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After the harsh reality check against India, Pakistan head into their final Group A fixture against Namibia knowing there is no room for error. Victory — or even a washout — will confirm Pakistan’s place in the Super Eight. A defeat, however, would condemn them to a third consecutive first-round exit at a men’s ICC event and see United States progress at their expense.

Pakistan should, on paper, have enough firepower to overcome a Namibian side still searching for their first win of the tournament. But recent history suggests nerves could yet play a decisive role. Against Netherlands in the tournament opener, Pakistan nearly unravelled during a routine chase, while the heavy loss to India exposed both tactical and personnel shortcomings.

That defeat highlighted Pakistan’s lack of credible pace options beyond a struggling Shaheen Afridi, while failures at the top of the order meant the contest was effectively decided inside the first two overs. With confidence dented, Pakistan are expected to reshuffle their XI, particularly their bowling combination, to inject more pace and penetration.

Namibia, already eliminated, approach the match with freedom Pakistan cannot afford. Their top order has shown intent throughout the tournament, briefly troubling both the USA and the Netherlands. To cause a major upset, they will need to sustain that pressure for longer periods and produce a near-perfect performance.

Much of Pakistan’s hopes may rest on Saim Ayub. Despite strong domestic and franchise form, a defining T20 World Cup innings has so far eluded him. With just 49 runs in three innings this tournament and an overall World Cup average of 14.40, Pakistan will look to him to either provide a blistering start or anchor a tricky chase to steady frayed nerves.

For Namibia, Louren Steenkamp has emerged as a key weapon at the top. Striking at nearly 133, second only to Jan Nicol Loftie-Eaton in Namibian history, Steenkamp has taken the attack to opposition bowlers, including a rapid assault on Arshdeep Singh earlier in the tournament. Namibia will need him to dominate the powerplay and apply early pressure on a Pakistan attack short on confidence.

Team news: Shaheen, Babar spots under scrutiny

Pakistan are expected to make multiple changes after the loss to India. Fast bowlers Naseem Shah and Salman Mirza are set to come in, while either Fakhar Zaman or Khawaja Nafay could feature for the first time in the tournament. Shaheen Afridi is likely to be rested, with Babar Azam also under pressure for his place.

Namibia may also tweak their side, with fast bowler Max Heingo struggling for impact so far. Jack Brassell is the leading contender to step in.

Pitch and conditions

Pakistan return to the Sinhalese Sports Club after their last outing at the R Premadasa Cricket Stadium. The black-soil surface is expected to offer more assistance to seamers and was previously used in a high-scoring match where Ireland posted 235 against Oman. There is a slight chance of rain at the start, but conditions are forecast to improve as the match progresses.

Stats and trivia

Abrar Ahmed is one wicket away from reaching 50 T20I wickets for Pakistan. The last time Pakistan faced Namibia at a T20 World Cup, in 2021, they scored 189 — a total they did not surpass again at the tournament until last week’s 190 against the USA.

What they said

“Shaheen and Babar have won many games for Pakistan. One game doesn’t define their calibre. They know how to bounce back,” said Usman Tariq, backing Pakistan’s senior players to respond under pressure.

With qualification on the line, Pakistan enter the contest as favourites — but with enough recent scars to know that nothing can be taken for granted.